Macro Research

During October, exports continued to show solid momentum, expanding 14.2% year-on-year, supported by Mexico’s sustained competitiveness in international trade. This performance was accompanied by a 15.7% annual rebound in intermediate goods imports, suggesting stronger demand for inputs from the manufacturing sector amid expanding external demand.

The trade balance posted a surplus of USD 606 million in October, outperforming our projection of a USD 455 million deficit and the consensus forecast of a USD 589 million deficit.

Total exports reached USD 66,133 million in October, representing a 14.2% annual increase. Manufacturing exports, accounting for more than 90% of the total (USD 61,644 million), stood out, driven by a 35% annual rise in non-automotive manufactures, in contrast with a -14% decline in automotive exports. Meanwhile, oil exports fell -30% year-on-year, marking seven consecutive months of contraction.

Non-oil exports to the United States were particularly notable, growing 17% y/y and accelerating from 12% previously, while shipments to the rest of the world decelerated from 29% y/y to 12% y/y.

Imports totaled USD 58,887 million, a 15.2% annual increase. Growth was concentrated in intermediate goods, such as inputs for the automotive industry, electrical components, and parts used in manufacturing processes, likely reflecting stronger external demand and the need to secure inputs for production.