Genomma Lab: Model Update Post 2Q25

We reiterate our Outperform rating, while slightly lowering our PT to P$29 (from P$30) post quiet period, as we continue to see meaningful upside. We continue to expect margin stability —EBITDA margin close to 24%—, despite top-line softness.

Revenues of P$4.7bn grew 0.5% YoY, 2.6% below our estimates amid weaker-than-expected growth in Mexico and LatAm; the U.S. on the other hand surprised to the upside, partially supported by FX tailwinds. Headwinds during the quarter included a heavy Argentine peso depreciation and weather headwinds impacting beverage sales in Mexico, offset by strong growth in the U.S., Brazil, and other LatAm markets. Across the portfolio, c.75% of sales grew above inflation and 67% of brands held or gained share, consistent with the focus on core brands. Excluding FX and the hyperinflationary effect from Argentina, consolidated sales grew 5.5% YoY.

Profitability expanded almost at every level, except gross margin that faced a 50bps margin contraction and was 150 bps below our estimates. EBIT and EBITDA margins expanded amid manufacturing cost efficiencies, productivity gains and a favorable mix. LatAm margin contraction at the EBITDA level partially offset the strong gains in Mexico and the U.S. margins. EBITDA margin expanded 90bps YoY to 23.8%, flattish QoQ, 20bps above our estimates, and close to the 24% target.