Mexico Equity Research: 2026 Key Themes

For 2026, we analyze the following main themes: 1) USMCA and its impact on investment; 2) World Cup and its impact across industries; 3) MX macro conditions and where Consumers might continue spending; 4) Construction, public investment and interest rates; 5) E-commerce, logistics and Real Estate; 6) Data centers and AI; 7) Overall state of the U.S. economy and its implications for MX companies; 8) Regional differences in growth across MX. Overall, within our different covered sectors, we see positive drivers, especially as 2025 represents an easy comp (e.g., USMCA, Construction, MX and U.S. economies); we therefore opt to have a more constructive view ahead.

We are also launching our Mexico Top Picks: TRAXION, CHEDRAUI, ALSEA, FEMSA and VESTA; we include VINTE as a low liquidity Top Pick. These companies mostly benefit from Macro dynamics (in Mexico and in the U.S.), Consumer trends, trade outlook, and the 2026 World Cup, among others; meanwhile, risks are more limited, in our view. We are also updating our estimates and PTs for Cemex, Volaris, GAP, CADU (rating downgrade to Underperform), and FINN, while we review Chedraui’s recently announced guidance. After a year of a stunning c.30% return, we forecast a healthy high-single-digit return for the Mexican Stock Exchange, with a 71,000 points IPC 2026 estimate.