Solid Top Line but With EBITDA Margin Contraction

• The Mexican transport sector posted another quarterly result with solid top-line performance supported by a better tariff environment and diversified revenues. However, higher labor costs result in a margin contraction.
• GAP reported the most robust results, with double-digit revenues and EBITDA expansion, followed by OMA. The total EBITDA margin in the transport sector contracted 161 bps, being the first quarter in the year with a margin contraction. The airport sector’s EBITDA contracted by 185 bps, while the airline's contracted by 507 bps. Total sales in the transport sector advanced 8.7% in 3Q25, while EBITDA gained 1.3% YoY.
• The pressure on costs would remain during 2025, which would be partially offset by a better price environment. As a result, we reduced some of our PT (ASUR, GAP, OMA, TRAXION), while our ratings remain unchanged. We reiterate our Outperform rating in VOLAR (PT P$16.0) and TRAXION (PT$23.0), while our previous Mkt. Perform rating in ASUR (PT P$628.0), GAP (PT P$445.0), OMA (PT P$270.0), and GMXT (PT P$36.0) is reiterated.

3Q25 in a nutshell. Total revenues in the sector gained 9% YoY, but advancing only +3% QoQ. On the other hand, total EBITDA was up 1% YoY, mostly below our estimates and reflecting higher costs, mainly in energy and salaries. The airport companies continue posting attractive top-line growth rates among our transport coverage, with GAP delivering the highest growth rate (+13% YoY), mainly driven by better tariffs. In contrast, at the EBITDA level, the margin contraction was significant, with 3Q25 the first quarter in which, overall, most of the company’s under coverage posted margin contraction. These cost levels could be considered as a baseline for the next quarters. The largest margin contraction comes from VOLAR (-507 bps), anticipating a challenging quarter but with an expected recovery going forward, followed by GAP (-263 bps) and TRAXION (-214 bps).

Although we have a positive outlook in the sector, current valuations have incorporated these positive expectations. PAX traffic has proven to be resilient. For 2025, we are projecting 4% average growth in PAX traffic, with a similar growth rate for 2026, a level that could prove to be conservative. The most significant catalysts for the sector would be: i) ASUR’s potential airports acquisition in Brazil; ii) GAP’s combination business (CBX and technical assistance and technology transfer services; and iii) OMA’s MDP approval. As well as follow news regarding the relation between Mexico and the US related to air transport services.