Macro Research
We cover the Mexican economy and its integration with the US economy, providing in-depth studies of economic activity dynamics and its relation with financial markets.
Our team has a combined work experience of over 25 years at Banco de México and Top Research Universities, which makes us particularly competitive in inflation and monetary policy studies.
Economic activity rebounds at year-end, growing 0.5% in 2025
The flash GDP estimate shows that the economy grew by 0.5% during 2025, its lowest level since the pandemic. Looking ahead, we expect growth of 1.6% in 2026, driven by consumption gains and a gradual recovery in industrial activity. During the fourth quarter of 2025, the flash estimate showed a 0.8% QoQ expansion in economic activity, surpassing both our...
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Inflation 1h – Jan
First-half January inflation was 0.31% bw, driven by the increase in taxes on sugar-sweetened beverages and cigarettes. With this information, annual inflation stands at 3.77%. The figure surprised to the downside against both our expectation (0.51% bw) and the consensus (0.40% bw). Of the 21 basis points of our forecast error, 11 bps correspond to the n...
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Inflation Forecast 1h – Jan
We expect headline inflation for the first half of January to settle at 0.51% bw, driven by tax increases on sugar-sweetened beverages and cigarettes, among other factors. Based on this forecast, annual inflation would stand at 3.97% Typically, inflation for this biweekly period averages around 0.30% bw. Our higher estimate is explained by increased pres...
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Residential construction drives fixed investment in October
Gross fixed investment rebounded 0.9% MoM in October, supported by a recovery in the construction sector following progress in federal government housing projects and infrastructure works related to World Cup preparations. The figure came below both our expectation (2.2% MoM) and the consensus estimate (1.7% MoM). The construction sector recorded a 3.9%...
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México Outlook for 2026
In 2026, Mexico is expected to face a relatively more favorable environment compared to 2025. Several factors are set to support this outlook, including the reconfiguration of global supply chains, a boost to consumption associated with the World Cup, the competitive advantage derived from the USMCA, and a potential reactivation of public investment. ...
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Inflation Ends 2025 at Its Best Level Since 2020
Inflation closed 2025 at 3.69%. Throughout the year, inflation dynamics were supported by lower pressures in the agricultural sector, which allowed Banco de México to cut the policy rate by 300 bp over the year. During the second half of December, inflation posted a -0.02% bw print, surprising to the downside relative to both the consensus (0.08% bw) and our ...
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Inflation Forecast 2h – Dec
We expect inflation for the second half of December to stand at 0.03% bw, supported by a drop in fruit and vegetable prices. With this information, inflation for 2025 would close at 3.72%. Typically, inflation for this fortnight stands around 0.15% bw. Our lower estimate is explained by reduced pressures in the non-core component (-0.25% bw vs. 0.38% bw ...
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Inflation 1h – Dec
In the first half of December, inflation stood at 0.17% bw, below expectations, reflecting a normalization in prices following the “Buen Fin” effect and lower pressures in the agricultural component. The figure surprised the market, coming in below our 0.24% bw estimate and the 0.32% bw expected by consensus. Core inflation stood at 0.31% bw, below our 0.41...
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Inflation Forecast 1h – Dec
We expect headline inflation in the first half of December to come in at 0.24% bw, amid lower pressures in agricultural products and a normalization following the “El Buen Fin” discounts. Typically, inflation in the first half of December stands at around 0.38% bw. Our lower estimate reflects softer pressures in both the core and non-core components. Within the ...
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