Macro Research
We cover the Mexican economy and its integration with the US economy, providing in-depth studies of economic activity dynamics and its relation with financial markets.
Our team has a combined work experience of over 25 years at Banco de México and Top Research Universities, which makes us particularly competitive in inflation and monetary policy studies.
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Inflation Forecast 2h – Nov: Pressures Following Buen Fin Discounts
We expect inflation in the second half of November to come in at 0.23% bw, driven by the rebound in merchandise prices following Buen Fin discounts and by pressures in agricultural products. On an annual basis, November inflation would stand at 3.79%. Typically, inflation...
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Mexico’s Labor Market Continues to Show Signs of Weakness
October labor market data showed that employment conditions continue to weaken. Although 655 thousand new jobs were created during the month, the increase was driven entirely by informal employment, pushing the informality rate up from 54.9% to 55.4% of the employed population. ...
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Mexican Exports Grow at the Fastest Pace of the Year
During October, exports continued to show solid momentum, expanding 14.2% year-on-year, supported by Mexico’s sustained competitiveness in international trade. This performance was accompanied by a 15.7% annual rebound in intermediate goods imports, suggesting stronger demand for inputs from the manufacturing sector amid expanding external demand. The trade balan...
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Inflation 1h – Nov: Buen Fin delivered limited price declines
In the first fortnight of November, inflation stood at 0.47% bw, driven by the withdrawal of the electricity tariff subsidy and higher public transportation prices. These pressures were partially offset by softer goods inflation associated with the Buen Fin discount program. As a result, annual inflation for the first fortnight of November reached 3.61%, maintaining...
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Economic Activity Declines in 3Q – 25
In the third quarter, GDP posted a -0.3% QoQ contraction, while weakness in industrial activity and the loss of momentum in the consumption sector persisted. As a result, our GDP forecast for 2025 would be revised from +0.60% to +0.35%. In the ninth month of the year, monthly GDP recorded a decline—already anticipated since the release of the flash estimate of quart...
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