Mexico Macro Economy
Economic activity rebounds at year-end, growing 0.5% in 2025
The flash GDP estimate shows that the economy grew by 0.5% during 2025, its lowest level since the pandemic. Looking ahead, we expect growth of 1.6% in 2026, driven by consumption gains and a gradual recovery in industrial activity.
During the fourth quarter of 2025, the flash estimate showed a 0.8% QoQ expansion in economic activity, surpassing both our estimate and the consensus expectation of 0.6% QoQ.
By sector, GDP grew 0.9% QoQ in the services sector, which remains the economy’s primary pillar of growth. This sector has benefited from wage growth as well as government transfers, which have provided sustained support.
Meanwhile, industrial activity advanced 0.9% QoQ, marking its largest quarterly increase since 2022. Although the flash estimate does not provide a full GDP breakdown, recent construction figures suggest this rebound is driven by the construction sector, potentially linked to World Cup-related projects and federal housing initiatives.
Looking forward, we expect consumption to remain resilient, with an additional boost from the World Cup that could contribute between 0.15% and 0.20% to this year's growth. This would be complemented by a gradual recovery in industrial activity, supported by stronger external demand and increased public spending on construction. Consequently, we maintain our 2026 growth forecast at 1.6%.
At the state level, while the most recent available figures correspond to the third quarter of 2025, they continue to show heterogeneous dynamics across regions. During this period, Tlaxcala (2.8% QoQ), Zacatecas (2.7% QoQ), and San Luis Potosi (1.7% QoQ) stood out, reflecting momentum in both the construction and the goods and services sectors. Conversely, the states with the lowest growth were Campeche (-3.8%), Coahuila (-2.4%), and Durango (-2.0%).