Residential construction drives fixed investment in October

Gross fixed investment rebounded 0.9% MoM in October, supported by a recovery in the construction sector following progress in federal government housing projects and infrastructure works related to World Cup preparations.

The figure came below both our expectation (2.2% MoM) and the consensus estimate (1.7% MoM).

The construction sector recorded a 3.9% MoM advance, breaking a four-month downward streak and marking its best monthly performance since October 2023. This dynamic was driven by a 6.4% surge in the residential sector, which may be associated with the progress of federal housing projects, while the non-residential segment grew 1.0% due to infrastructure developments linked to the World Cup.

In contrast, the machinery and equipment component fell 2.2% MoM, reflecting widespread weakness across most of its categories, except for imported transportation equipment, which advanced 3.3% after two consecutive months of contractions.

Imported transportation equipment stands out as the only segment within machinery and equipment to show positive year-to-date growth as of October 2025. This momentum responds, in part, to the need for companies to expand their logistical capacity to meet external demand, as well as the effect of the appreciation of the peso against the dollar.

Gross fixed investment has recorded a decline as a proportion of GDP. This pullback is primarily linked to the completion of several federal priority projects, a pause in public infrastructure spending, and the uncertainty stemming from the U.S. administration, which may be stalling certain corporate investment decisions.

Looking ahead, we expect a gradual recovery in fixed investment, driven by the reactivation of the construction sector—particularly in infrastructure projects related to the World Cup and federal government works. Likewise, as the outlook regarding the USMCA becomes more clearly defined, we could see a rebound in the sector's performance.