Inflation Forecast 2h – Dec

We expect inflation for the second half of December to stand at 0.03% bw, supported by a drop in fruit and vegetable prices. With this information, inflation for 2025 would close at 3.72%.

Typically, inflation for this fortnight stands around 0.15% bw. Our lower estimate is explained by reduced pressures in the non-core component (-0.25% bw vs. 0.38% bw historical), due to a favorable trend in fruit and vegetable prices (-1.16% bw vs. 1.10% bw historical), associated with more favorable agricultural conditions.

As for core inflation, we expect an increase of 0.12% bw, slightly above the historical 0.08% bw for this period. Within the index, the goods component stands out (0.21% bw vs. 0.18% bw historical), with pressures on alcoholic beverage prices, an increase that could be associated with preparations for the end-of-year holidays.

With this information, in December headline inflation would decrease from 3.80% to 3.72%, while core inflation would drop from 4.43% to 4.37% and non-core inflation from 1.73% to 1.47%. In this way, headline inflation would close at its lowest annual level since 2020, when it stood at 3.15% year-onyear.