Industrial activity declines in September

In September, industrial activity continued to show weakness, falling 0.4% month-over-month and marking its fourth consecutive monthly decline. Construction remains sluggish, while manufacturing is stagnant.

The observed figure was in line with our estimate of -0.3% MoM, compared with the 0.0% expected by consensus.

Construction dropped 2.5% MoM, consistent with the stagnation in building works and the decline in transportation and urban development projects. This was reflected in a 3.0% MoM contraction in civil engineering works, driven by lower public investment in infrastructure and the ongoing fiscal consolidation process that has limited capital spending.

In contrast, the electricity and telecommunications component has shown better performance in recent months, supported by progress in the Plan de Fortalecimiento y Expansión del Sistema Eléctrico Nacional. Looking ahead, construction could be one of the sectors to experience a stronger recovery next year, as the government resumes public works.

Meanwhile, manufacturing grew 0.2% MoM, reflecting the resilience still observed in the export-oriented sector. This was driven by increases in petroleum-derived products (+6.3%), machinery and equipment (+2.8%), electrical equipment (+2.2%), and textile inputs (+1.3%). In contrast, most manufacturing components—17 of the 21 subsectors—continued to show weak dynamics, highlighting a heterogeneous performance within the sector.

In this context, we expect the Mexican economy to end the year in a state of stagnation, as both the export and consumption sectors show signs of deceleration. We maintain our GDP growth forecasts at 0.6% for 2025 and 1.8% for 2026.